NFL Best Bet Picks

Each week the person in charge of a subscriber feature can submit a 'best bet' selection. These have proved to be very potent in some cases since the introduction of this concept five years ago, and we will present a best bet freebie on this page each week.

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NFL Best Bet: Week One

Cumulative Spread Margin
("Contrarian Bridgejumping")

Week One

If you are unfamiliar with the "Contrarian Bridgejumping" handicapping method, we suggest you read the following first:

• Contrarian Bridgejumping Revisited

As the name suggests, "Cumulative Spread Margin" involves totaling up how a team has performed in terms of net points against the lines on their games. For instance a team that won by eight while favored by three would accrue +5 points of CSM for the effort. On the other hand a team that lost by eight while favored by three would get a -11 CSM for that game.

Similar to the Turnover Difference Theory (another contrarian indicator), the CSM angle suggests playing the team with the BAD Cumulative Spread Margin in match-ups with a significant difference, which is defined as 6+ CSM points per game.

Example: if team A is averaging a -2 pt CSM and team B is +5 CSM per game so far, then team A would be the play based on being 7 CSM pts worse per game.

While the method is focused on the week 5 to week 12 heart of the season, it seems logical that the angle might work fairly well for the first week of a season, given that the lousy teams from last year will probably be under-rated, while the good teams from last season may generally be over-rated. Here are the CSM results in week one games:

So it's a little impressive seeing the 6+ plays (the only ones that count) have compiled a 44-24 record from 1984-2007. Then in 2008 it was 3-1, but 0-2 in 2009.

Let's take a look then at the 2010 season matchups:

Away CSM	Away Team	Line (Home)	Home Team	Home CSM	Pick	CSM Diff
3.5	Minnesota	-4.5	New Orleans	3		.5
.2	Miami	3	Buffalo	-.7		.9
1.6	Indianapolis	2.5	Houston	2.2		-.6
-5.5	Detroit	-6	Chicago	-2.6		-2.9
2	Atlanta	2.5	Pittsburgh	-2.8		4.8
-1	Cleveland	-3	Tampa Bay	-1.4		.4
.3	Cincinnati	-4.5	New England	3.4		-3.1
.5	Denver	-2.5	Jacksonville	-5.1		5.6
-3.1	Oakland	-6.5	Tennessee	-3.2		.1
3.6	Carolina	-7	New York Giants	-5.1	New York Giants	8.7
3.4	San Francisco	3	Seattle	-4.5	Seattle	7.9
-.4	Arizona	4	St. Louis	-6.9	St. Louis	6.5
5.3	Green Bay	3	Philadelphia	1		4.3
2.3	Dallas	4	Washington	-1.7		4
3.4	Baltimore	-2	New York Jets	5.5		-2.1
4.1	San Diego	5.5	Kansas City	-1.4		5.5

ANALYSIS: Three teams get the nod by the CSM method for the openers, based on the prior season performance against the spread, but the pick of those here is NY Giants -7.

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