Drive Chart Dogs
We are often asked how to use the stats we produce to bet against the spread successfully. Many people find that if they look at too many stats for too long, that instead of becoming more confident about their pick, they will in fact become confused and feel like every game is a toss-up. To counteract this reaction we produce a number of different reports, some of which summarize all of our data down into neat little packets of information.
Probably the easiest to understand (and arguably the best) feature that we create each week is our "Overlay Report" which lists each game, our predicted score from both a drive chart and play-by-play perspective, the current "neutral" line, and the subsequent selection and overlay amount.
For those who are unfamiliar with the term, an "Overlay" really refers to the perceived value between your expectation of what will happen and the actual spread on a game. For instance if you think Team A will win by 10 points and they are only favored to win by 3 points, then you could say you have a 7 point overlay betting on Team A (the difference between your 10 pt win prediction and the 3 pt actual spread). Of course whether you have an actual overlay or not is dependent on your predictions being more accurate than the point spread.
We have been producing our predicted score numbers since 1997, and strongly believe our stats give us an edge against the line. For a sample of what the Overlay report looks like, here is the actual data from the Drive Chart projected score summary for week 14 of the 2000 season:
Drive Chart Projected Scores Summary
Using our exclusive Drive Chart Stats we create a predicted score for every game each week. By comparing our projection to the actual line you can find games where there is a significant difference (the "Overlay"). Generally we recommend only playing games with a 4+ point overlay.
Week 14 of the NFL 2000 Season
| Matchup |
Predicted Score |
TMW Line |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Overlay |
| Miami at Buffalo |
MIA 20-17 |
+3 |
-3.5 |
Miami |
6.5 |
| Tennessee at Philadelphia |
PHI 20-17 |
-3 |
+3 |
Philadelphia |
6.0 |
| St. Louis at Carolina |
STL 29-26 |
+3 |
+8 |
Carolina |
5.0 |
| Dallas at Tampa Bay |
TB 29-14 |
-15 |
-10.5 |
Tampa Bay |
4.5 |
| Kansas City at New England |
KC 23-20 |
+3 |
-1 |
Kansas City |
4.0 |
| NY Giants at Washington |
WAS 22-19 |
-3 |
-6.5 |
NY Giants |
3.5 |
| Indianapolis at NY Jets |
IND 24-23 |
+1 |
-2.5 |
Indianapolis |
3.5 |
| Green Bay at Chicago |
GB 23-18 |
+5 |
+2 |
Green Bay |
3.0 |
| Arizona at Cincinnati |
CIN 25-18 |
-7 |
-4.5 |
Cincinnati |
2.5 |
| Denver at New Orleans |
NO 24-23 |
-1 |
pick'em |
New Orleans |
1.0 |
| San Francisco at San Diego |
SF 27-25 |
+2 |
+2.5 |
San Diego |
0.5 |
| Cleveland at Jacksonville |
JAX 28-13 |
-15 |
-14.5 |
Jacksonville |
0.5 |
| Detroit at Minnesota |
MIN 28-19 |
-9 |
-9 |
|
0.0 |
| Oakland at Pittsburgh |
OAK 24-21 |
+3 |
+3 |
|
0.0 |
| Seattle at Atlanta |
ATL 22-21 |
-1 |
-1 |
|
0.0 |
|
At a glance it might seem the simple way to approach betting on the NFL with this tool is to only back those teams with sizable overlays. While blindly back all significant overlays has worked very well in some years, the real trick is to focus on teams picked to cover the spread that are Underdogs.
A look at the long term history shows this clearly:
Drive Chart Projected Score Performance
1998-2004 seasons, week 4+
| Overlay --> |
.5 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
60 - 48 |
73 - 73 |
57 - 41 |
40 - 39 |
60 - 67 |
290 - 268 |
| HomeDogs |
19 - 10 |
27 - 23 |
21 - 14 |
12 - 7 |
17 - 6 |
96 - 60 |
| AwayFavs |
19 - 30 |
34 - 38 |
35 - 32 |
22 - 23 |
40 - 39 |
150 - 162 |
| AwayDogs |
38 - 32 |
59 - 58 |
49 - 24 |
22 - 18 |
36 - 29 |
204 - 161 |
| Favorites |
79 - 78 |
107 - 111 |
92 - 73 |
62 - 62 |
100 - 106 |
440 - 430 |
| Underdogs |
57 - 42 |
86 - 81 |
70 - 38 |
34 - 25 |
53 - 35 |
300 - 221 |
| Home Teams |
79 - 58 |
100 - 96 |
78 - 55 |
52 - 46 |
77 - 73 |
386 - 328 |
| Away Teams |
57 - 62 |
93 - 96 |
84 - 56 |
44 - 41 |
76 - 68 |
354 - 323 |
| ALL PICKS |
136 - 120 |
193 - 192 |
162 - 111 |
96 - 87 |
153 - 141 |
740 - 651 |
| WIN % |
53 % |
50 % |
59 % |
52 % |
52 % |
53 % |
| Spread Range |
7.5+ points |
3.5 to 7 |
0 to 3 |
| Favorites |
121 - 130 |
217 - 195 |
102 - 105 |
| Underdogs |
43 - 22 |
116 - 84 |
141 - 115 |
The NFL has over the long term been kind with underdogs and there are a number of reasons why covering everything from prevent defenses to the influence of turnovers. People often fail to win when wagering because they play too many games, without focusing on where they actually have an advantage. If you look at the comprehensive records you can see underdogs are the key, particularly when getting 4 or more points of overlay value compared to the actual spread.
DRIVE CHART DOGS
1998-2004 Season Performance
| Category |
Won |
Lost |
Cover % |
| All Dogs |
300 |
221 |
57 % |
| 2+ Overlay |
243 |
179 |
58 % |
| 4+ Overlay |
157 |
98 |
62 % |
While we will give samples of the 'Drive Chart Dogs' output during the season, to have access to the predictions for every game of the NFL 2005 campaign you will need to subscribe. Whether you use TwoMinuteWarning's data or not, concentrate your betting dollars on those games where you are getting significant true value when comparing your prediction to the line!
Also see:
What the Press says about TwoMinuteWarning
TwoMinuteWarning versus traditional Handicapping services
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