|
Q: I play teasers now and then and it seems like there are some teams who are always right around the number, but then others where anything can happen (and usually does). Do you have any numbers on what teams tend to do better as teaser bets?
A: There's actually a lot of depth to your question that we will attempt to answer in stages. For starters we can begin by examining the records of all the individual teams as both 6-pt and 10-pt teaser plays --
Teaser Records from 2001 Regular Season
| Team |
6-Pt
Teaser
Won |
6-Pt
Teaser
Lost |
Won
vs.
Spread |
Lost
vs.
Spread |
10-Pt
Teaser
Won |
10-Pt
Teaser
Lost |
| Chicago |
16 |
0 |
11 |
4 |
16 |
0 |
| San Francisco |
15 |
1 |
9 |
7 |
15 |
1 |
| New England |
14 |
1 |
11 |
5 |
15 |
1 |
| Pittsburgh |
14 |
2 |
11 |
4 |
14 |
2 |
| Green Bay |
13 |
3 |
9 |
6 |
14 |
2 |
| San Diego |
12 |
3 |
5 |
10 |
14 |
1 |
| Kansas City |
12 |
4 |
7 |
8 |
12 |
2 |
| Miami |
12 |
4 |
10 |
5 |
13 |
3 |
| Philadelphia |
12 |
4 |
10 |
5 |
13 |
3 |
| St. Louis |
12 |
4 |
9 |
6 |
14 |
2 |
| N.Y. Jets |
11 |
4 |
8 |
8 |
13 |
3 |
| Arizona |
11 |
5 |
9 |
6 |
12 |
3 |
| Atlanta |
11 |
5 |
6 |
8 |
11 |
4 |
| Cincinnati |
11 |
5 |
8 |
8 |
12 |
4 |
| Dallas |
11 |
5 |
8 |
8 |
14 |
2 |
| Seattle |
11 |
5 |
6 |
9 |
12 |
4 |
| Washington |
11 |
5 |
8 |
7 |
11 |
5 |
| Cleveland |
10 |
5 |
8 |
7 |
13 |
3 |
| N.Y. Giants |
10 |
5 |
5 |
10 |
12 |
3 |
| Tampa Bay |
10 |
5 |
6 |
9 |
14 |
2 |
| Buffalo |
10 |
6 |
6 |
10 |
11 |
5 |
| Carolina |
10 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
12 |
4 |
| Denver |
10 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
11 |
5 |
| Detroit |
10 |
6 |
9 |
7 |
11 |
5 |
| Jacksonville |
10 |
6 |
8 |
8 |
12 |
4 |
| Oakland |
9 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
13 |
3 |
| Baltimore |
9 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
12 |
4 |
| Tennessee |
9 |
7 |
5 |
10 |
11 |
5 |
| Indianapolis |
8 |
7 |
6 |
10 |
11 |
5 |
| Minnesota |
7 |
7 |
5 |
10 |
10 |
4 |
| New Orleans |
8 |
8 |
6 |
10 |
10 |
6 |
ANALYSIS:
To provide some basis for comparison, all the possible 6-point teaser bets (eg playing both sides) wound up at 339-147 for 69.7%, while the 10-point teaser plays were 388-100 for 79.5% altogether.
Clearly there were a number of teams that had very successful years from a teaser bet standpoint, none topping the throwback Chicago Bears who managed a perfect 16-0 performance with the added six points. The Bears were closely followed by the 49ers, Patriots and Steelers, who were all outstanding over the course of the year. At the same time you were taking your chances whenever you were backing the Saints, Vikings, Colts, Titans and Ravens. Now of course the hierarchy can be summed up simply as the "surprises" and "disappointments" in that all the good group had seasons surpassing expectations, while all the bottom group failed to fulfill what was generally expected of them.
What this means then is that it's not likely that following these teams again next season will produce comparable results since the "cat's out of the bag" as far as the Bears, Patriots and co. being able to sneak up on anyone in 2002. Likewise the perception of the struggling teams will drop giving them ample opportunity to redeem themselves.
The lesson to be learned we think is rather that phenomenal results will come if you can pick up on an "up and coming" team ahead of the rest of the wagering world.
The most interesting team in the list has to be the Chargers who were a motley 5-10 against the spread, but an excellent 12-3 with the tease...certainly they had a number of heartbreaking straight-up losses for their followers, but they were in almost every game they played. Kansas City likewise could be considered a team that played tough but couldn't pull off enough victories in crunch time.
Perhaps the more revealing way to examine the original question though is to group teams by certain characteristics (eg good rushing, poor points allowed, etc) and we will be back to expand on this idea soon!
|
