As the calendar rolls over into December and the NFL regular season heads into its last month, the weather gets a little colder, players are a little slower bouncing back from injuries, and the coaches become fatigued after so many intense weeks of making game-plans and watching film.

The question for those of us who wager on the games however (and we too must avoid the pitfalls of being worn down by the season’s work) is what changes to make to our chosen approach to handicapping. After all, you would think motivation and resulting pressure varies considerably for teams in the last weeks depending on their record and their post-season outlook. Consequently the astute handicapper will most likely need to make some adjustments to the everyday analysis.

Looking at over ten years worth of late season games, there’s one thing that stands out as remarkable -- the success of home underdogs. While home dogs are always worth a second look, this is especially true in the last quarter of the schedule. Our database shows that dogs have hit at almost a 61% clip during the last four weeks, and away favorites consequently have been a pro football gambler’s ruin! Home favorites and away underdogs have been much closer to a 50/50 split overall.

The next idea we had to check on was how teams have performed at the end of the year when the season as a whole has either been disappointing or exceeded expectations. In both these cases we are basing this evaluation on how a team’s current in-season won-lost record compares to its prior year record. In other words a team with a 12-4 record the year before that’s plodding along at .500 this season would probably be hearing a little flak from the fans. On the other hand, a team that was 4-12 the previous season would probably be feeling pretty good with a .500 mark for the current year.

As it turns out, the only thing of deep interest in this area is that teams having good seasons (with winning percentages of 20% better than the prior year) are good bets at home, but below par on the road. As big home favorites (laying five or more points) such teams have been solid at 61% against the line.

The next obvious place to turn is to looking at the events in a team’s last game and how that might alter their results against the line. While being off a win or a loss wasn’t hugely significant in the tests we ran, there were some other statistical factors worth noting. Turnovers are something we harp on a lot at TwoMinuteWarning.com, with the general rule being that teams getting the breaks in the turnover department are often good ones to bet against, and vice-versa. The overall turnover difference theory tends to break down a bit in the later weeks, but looking at the turnover stats from just the last game can have some value.

Teams that committed 4+ turnovers in the last game
As Underdogs: 55-37 (60%), as Favorites: 31-48 (39%)

Teams that had 4+ takeaways in the last game
As home teams: 46-31 (58%), as away teams (50%)

Teams that had 0 takeaways in the last game
As home teams: 54-36 (60%)

Teams with -3 or worse net turnovers in the last game
As Underdogs: 46-25 (65%), as Favorites: 26-36 (42%)

Another frequently important stats field is rushing yards - allowing high yardage is sometimes a symptom of a team that packed it in to some extent in a given game. How we wondered did teams respond after being run over?

The history at least suggests that teams can recover. Sides that gave up 150+ yards rushing in their previous game were 103-88 overall, but an outstanding 37-11 (77%) coming back as home underdogs!

Finally, the best piece of information we uncovered in our digging through the database on “last month considerations” has to do with the records of teams coming into the matchup. In particular what has over the years provided an impressive record against the spread is to go against good teams when they are playing on the road. Our definition we used for a “good” team is any squad with a 60% winning record or better. When such a team has faced a home foe whose record coming in was below .600, the home side has a hearty 68-39 (63%) edge against the line. If the home team was favored, they notched the win against the spread over 70% of the time playing an opponent with a better record (at least .600) coming into the meeting!

In conclusion then, here are some points to ponder when you start looking over the matchups in the tail end of the season:

• Give home underdogs very serious consideration, play away favorites sparingly if at all
• Turnovers in the last game can be a tip-off to performance in this one, but not probably in the way you would assume
• Look to take a stand against good teams when they are playing on the road against lesser foes