Player 1	Player 2
Aaron Schatz: The founder of stats site FootballOutsiders.com	K.Aird (Canada) Subscriber Qualifier
1. New York Jets -3 2. Carolina -7.5 3. Washington +4.5 4. Tampa Bay +3 5. Buffalo -8 Well, here we are. It all comes down to five games in this, possibly the strangest final week of all time. There are always losing teams that toss in some backups in the final week to see how they do, and a couple of playoff teams with nothing to play for that sit their starters. But there have never been anywhere close to this many playoff seeds locked: seven of them, more than the last four years combined. For somebody who uses statistical methods to pick games, this is a nightmare. There is no doubt that this week is a total crapshoot. What the heck, we'll pick some games anyway. You can read about my methods, in particular my main statistic DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), on this page in my last three sets of picks. New York Jets -3 over ST. LOUIS I've ridden the idea that the Rams are horribly overrated all season and I'm not going to stop now. Everything you know about this game is wrong. The Rams are terrible this season. Pure numbers don't realize Philly wasn't trying last week, but even after that win the Rams rank #31 in my ratings. (see FootballOutsiders ratings). The Rams have been blown out in four of their last six games, with the only wins coming against the worst team in football and a team that didn't care. But aren't the Rams unbeatable at home? Nope, they've lost to both New Orleans and New England at home this season. What about the Jets, aren't they a soft team that took advantage of an easy schedule and has faded in the second half? Nope, they are ranked #6 in my rankings. Four of their five losses have come to teams ranked in the top five and the fifth came by only three points to the team ranked right behind them at #7. They have beaten a lot of bad teams this year but guess what -- the Rams are a bad team. The Jets aren't fading, they are 4-2 in their last six games. But isn't Curtis Martin slowing down late in the season? Not really. The two losses in the last six games came to Pittsburgh and New England, teams with strong run defenses. But in the last four New York wins, Martin averaged 5.2 yards per carry, and St. Louis can't stop the run at all. If Martin gets tired, they toss Lamont Jordan in there. Did I mention the Rams have a turnover margin of -21, and the Jets have a turnover margin of 14? How about the fact that the Rams have lost to all three other AFC East teams -- including Miami (!) -- by 17 points or more? Oh, and if Jets fans are worried that Herm Edwards will do something stupid to throw away the game, check the other sideline. Play this game ten times, the Jets win nine of them. Hopefully this won't be the other one. CAROLINA -7.5 over New Orleans I have nightmares where the Saints return a kickoff for a touchdown and back-door cover. But the Panthers are clearly superior to the Saints, who shouldn't be anywhere near the playoff race. My ratings have Carolina #11, New Orleans #23. It's nice that the Saints are on a little hot streak but they've only played two games this season that come out with DVOA ratings above 0%, and those are the last two games, and one of them came against Matt Schaub for crying out loud. These teams met four weeks ago in New Orleans, with the Panthers winning 32-21 in a game that was never close. The Panthers led 26-7 at halftime and the Saints scored a meaningless touchdown in the final minute. The Panthers held the ball for 42 minutes, the Saints only 18. That's OK, the Saints are used to being down early. They've been outscored in the first quarter by an astonishing total of 114-22. WASHINGTON +4.5 over Minnesota Based on total DVOA, Minnesota is the better team, ranked #14 with the Redskins at #18. But based on weighted DVOA, a statistic which gives more weight to games later in the season and has been more accurate predicting games in past years, Washington is better right now, ranked #14 with Minnesota #16. Minnesota matches its offensive strength with Washington's defensive strength, and its defensive weakness with Washington's offensive weakness, but Washington's offense is a little less weak since Patrick Ramsey took over for the corpse of Mark Brunell. I must admit I'm a bit worried about a few of these Washington injuries, and if they were smart they would take Rock Cartwright out of mothballs -- despite being one of the highest-rated RB per play last season according to our methods, he hasn't had a carry this year, and his downhill style is perfect for cold weather and the Vikings' porous rush defense. But while the theory of "dome teams suffer in cold weather" has not done well this season, it did predict Minnesota's loss in Chicago, and this line is set up perfectly for the Vikings to blow a lead late, even if they escape with a win and a playoff spot. Tampa Bay +3 over ARIZONA I guess both teams will be trying to win because it is better to be 6-10 and not 5-11. Yippee. Tampa Bay #15 in DVOA, #12 in weighted DVOA. Arizona #28 in DVOA, #29 in weighted DVOA. Both teams are actually better than this because both offensive ratings are dragged down by a few weeks of very bad quarterbacking by QBs who won't play this weekend. At least, I hope not. Can we lock Chris Simms in his house so he misses the team flight? BUFFALO -8 over Pittsburgh Usually Pittsburgh is better, sure, but not by as much as you think. The Steelers are #4 in DVOA, #2 in weighted DVOA. Buffalo is #5 in DVOA, #3 in weighted DVOA. Toss in the fact that home field advantage is larger later in the season, and Buffalo should be favored here even if Pittsburgh had something to play for, just not by this many points. But come on, Cowher has to be joking when he talks about how he is going to play hard to win the game, right? Tommy Maddox is underrated (he was a mediocre starter but he's one of the league's best backups) but this is the league's best defense, playing for a postseason spot, against Maddox and Verron Haynes and backup wide recievers. We learned a couple weeks ago against the Giants that while Randle El can step in for Burress, Lee Mays certainly cannot step in for Randle El. I cannot believe I'm gambling $1000 on a team led by Drew Bledsoe, but here we are. If Bledsoe throws one of his obscenely stupid interceptions in the fourth quarter and the Steelers return it for a touchdown and a backdoor cover, I'm driving up to Buffalo, finding Bledsoe's house, and demanding that he refund the money I lose to Mr. Aird.	1. New York Jets -3 2. New England -14 3. Carolina -7.5 4. Minnesota -4.5 5. Tampa Bay +3 Well I must say after watching the Vikes punt late in the game instead of going for it on 4th and 3 (nothing like wrapping Christmas presents and watching football at the same time) against the Packers, I didn't think I would be sitting here today, but certainly glad things turned out the way they did, for the rest of last weeks picks. I must say most of my competitors this year have rested on strong statistical data and although I feel it has its importance, I can sum up my reference material with two words. Sunday ticket!!! Well make that nine words. "Sunday Ticket and a wife that likes watching football." Yes, there is no substitution for the flipping of games over the span of an afternoon. Feel very privileged to be here in the final and what a difficult week ahead, to try and dissect. You have somewhat of a tougher week with some coaches resting their players prior to their playoffs matches. It will be interesting to see how many remember how well that boded for the Bronco's last year. Throw in those that have nothing to play for and it is somewhat a roll of the dice, but what the hell, I always liked craps anyways. Let us begin...... So you have a team that has been struggling of late, that has bar none one of the most second guessed coaches in the NFL at their helm. Toss in their new running back, being somewhat banged up and now, quite possibly the most incredible statement to come out of the NFL this year, that their offensive linemen Kyle Turley has threatened his coach Mike Martz? I don't know, seems like a circus more than a football team. The Jets will bounce back this week, would feel somewhat more secure with Abraham in the lineup but nonetheless, feel the Jets, are the far better team. NY JETS -3 This strikes me as an odd pick, when a team has nothing to play for, but I have vivid memories last year of the Patriots Larry Izzo picking off a Bills pass to preserve a shutout in their last game of the year. This is a team in my mind, that takes playing out the string, seriously. I don't doubt that the Pats could play their second stringers the entire game and still cover this number, so if Brady and company can play half a game, they will sail. Patriots -14 Another playoff implicating match up has the Saints and the Panthers. Carolina just keeps rolling along, the only blip being that incredible touchdown by Vick a little while back, leading to their loss. With their running game intact, Muhsin being reborn and Colbert helping out, their offence is clicking at the right time, with the Saints coming to town. The Saints defense is getting better, but still has room to improve. I have watched enough Saints games this year, where Brooks has thrown an untimely pick in the red zone, costing his team. It would not surprise me if one of the opportunistic linebackers of the Panthers, like a Dan Morgan, may make the difference, with such a play. I will go the extra half point, with nary a worry and go with the Panthers. Carolina -7.5 Vikes oh the Vikes, how they stress me. So much talent on the offense and whether Ted Cottrell is in green or purple, I always see him shaking his head in disgust on the sideline. The good thing about him moving from New York to Minnesota, is it is too cold in Minneapolis for Vikings fans to stick around after a game and berate him. This pick on paper makes no sense, a team that can not win outdoors, still shaking in their boots over the collapse against the Cards last year that cost them a playoff spot and in the back of your mind, you must ask, just how healthy is Moss? The flipside we are running with is Tice is a players coach, he gets signed this week to his extension, no Portis, no Arrington, and Smoot is hurt for the Redskins and what's this, they are still banking on Ramsey as their quarterback of the future?????? Sorry his ill timed pick in the corner of the end zone against the Eagles a few weeks back, makes me think he isn't the future. I'll go Vikings. Minnesota -4.5 I am somewhat embarrassed that my last nine picks have been favorites, so we better pick a dog in the bunch here. I could have taken the Fish, but with Sage the Chef at QB that just doesn't work for me. The rest are pretty much playoff teams with nothing to play for, so we will go to Arizona, home of the team with "no home field advantage" and take the Bucs. Although some of the defensive players have called out Gruden this week, I think Simms will shine in his opportunity to start at QB. With Davis out for Arizona, Rice could have a field day in the back field. In week 17 with not a lot to choose, we will run with this theory anyways. Tampa Bay +3 Its been fun fellow subscribers, wish you continued success this week ahead and throughout the play-offs. Good luck to Aaron also.

After revisiting the prize money distribution, the winner of this inaugural running of the TMW Handicapping Challenge will now collect $750, the runner-up will get $250 for having won three rounds to get here. Both players will receive automatic entries into the 2005 tournament, which promises to be bigger and better!

Semi-Final Matchups

WEEK	Player 1	Player 2	WINNER
15	Mike Orkin: statistics professor, creator of Optimizer NFL software.	Aaron Schatz: The founder of stats site FootballOutsiders.com	Aaron Schatz see Picks
16	S.Penhos (Mexico) Subscriber Qualifier	K.Aird (Canada) Subscriber Qualifier	K.Aird see Picks

Quarter-Final Matchups

WEEK	Player 1	Player 2	WINNER
11	R.Shine (CA) Subscriber Qualifier	Mike Orkin: statistics professor, creator of Optimizer NFL software.	Mike Orkin see Picks
12	Brandon Funston: Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Expert, NFL Analyst.	Aaron Schatz: The founder of stats site FootballOutsiders.com	Aaron Schatz see Picks
13	S.Penhos (Mexico) Subscriber Qualifier	J.Palazzolo (NV) Subscriber Qualifier	S.Penhos see Picks
14	K.Aird (Canada) Subscriber Qualifier	'Kevin Lewis': MIT grad, blackjack player, star of Bringing Down the House	K.Aird see Picks

First Round Matchups

WEEK	Expert	TMW Subscriber	WINNER
3	Sports Insights: every wager placed offshore registers at SportsInsights.com	R.Shine (CA)	R.Shine see Picks
4	Mike Orkin: statistics professor, author, and creator of the Optimizer NFL software.	J.Kelly (CA)	Mike Orkin see Picks
5	Brandon Funston: Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Expert, Brandon knows the scoop on the NFL.	T.Corpis (CA)	Brandon Funston see Picks
6	Aaron Schatz: The founder of acclaimed NFL stats site FootballOutsiders.com	"Wunderdog"	Aaron Schatz see Picks
7	Benjamin Eckstein: co-founder of America's Line and authority on all things gambling.	S.Penhos (Mexico)	S.Penhos* see Picks
8	Roland: The founder of TwoMinuteWarning and winner of last season's H2H Challenge.	J.Palazzolo (NV)	J.Palazzolo see Picks
9	Stanford Wong: legendary Blackjack expert, author, founder of SharpSportsBetting.com	K.Aird (Canada)	K.Aird see Picks
10	'Kevin Lewis': MIT grad, million dollar winning blackjack player, star of Bringing Down the House	M.Gargone (AL)	Kevin Lewis* see Picks