Barrington is a bonafide winner in straight up football office pool type events. He has won multiple prizes, both weekly and season long, in the large Las Vegas "pick every game" contests. He will write a column every week focused strictly on straight up handicapping.
"I have always respected everyone's religion. As I say, there is only one God and a lot of confused people. "
-- Hazel Scott
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The Henry Rules
#1: Know the odds of a team winning
#2: Upsets happen
#3: Take the odds of winning and adjust them
#4: Don't get crazy
#5: The last game matters
#6: Season has stages
#7: Look at the won-loss record
#8: Division, Conference, Non Conference
#9: Travel Counts
#10: The NFL means pain
#11: Loser teams have excuses ready
#12: It's all about the Quarterback
#13: Emotion Commotion
Most important is #3.
The Henry Rules
#3: Take the odds of winning and adjust them
--- Odds of Winning is odds of winning game STRAIGHT-UP (Spread NOT considered!)
| Away Team |
Home Team |
Spread |
Likely Winner |
Odds of Winning* |
| New England |
NY Giants |
14.5 |
New England |
90% |
| San Francisco |
Cleveland |
-10 |
Cleveland |
80% |
| Dallas |
Washington |
-8.5 |
Washington |
78% |
| Buffalo |
Philadelphia |
-7.5 |
Philadelphia |
75% |
| San Diego |
Oakland |
8 |
San Diego |
74% |
| Jacksonville |
Houston |
-6.5 |
Houston |
71% |
| Tennessee |
Indianapolis |
6.5 |
Tennessee |
71% |
| St. Louis |
Arizona |
-6 |
Arizona |
70% |
| Kansas City |
NY Jets |
-6 |
NY Jets |
70% |
| Detroit |
Green Bay |
-4 |
Green Bay |
64% |
| Pittsburgh |
Baltimore |
3.5 |
Pittsburgh |
61% |
| Seattle |
Atlanta |
-2.5 |
Atlanta |
58% |
| Cincinnati |
Miami |
3 |
Cincinnati |
58% |
| Minnesota |
Denver |
3 |
Minnesota |
58% |
| New Orleans |
Chicago |
2.5 |
Chicago |
50% |
| Carolina |
Tampa Bay |
2.5 |
Tampa Bay |
50% |
*=smoother chart
Last week of the season. These games are different. Many teams do not have much to play for and may already be thinking about vacation. Playoff teams may be coasting.
The numbers above reprensent the long term odds of winning. Linemakers ain't perfect though. They are just guessing like we are on some of these games as to whether a team will try to win.
So normal drill is you give the games the shift 5%, maybe 10%, maybe 15%. This here week is the one exception. You think Dallas will try to win? Well you could be right, you could be wrong. This week you can play your hunches and it's not being so crazy.
Still if you know nothing about football, leave it alone and stand by the odds.
I ain't sure if I'll come back for this next year, but if I do you will know where to find me.
Peace on Earth. Friends I wish you well. Clowns you just keep on clowning, makes no difference to me.
Also See:
Straight-up quick picks
Spread quick picks