NFL Pages
  • Home
  • Predictions
  • Research
  • Teams
  • Players
  • Subscribe!
  • Quarterbacks
  • Production
  • Utilization
  • Red Zone
  • By Week
  • Running Backs
  • Production
  • Utilization
  • Red Zone
  • By Week
  • Wide Receivers
  • Production
  • Utilization
  • Red Zone
  • By Week
  • Tight Ends
  • Production
  • Utilization
  • Red Zone
  • By Week
  • TwoMinuteWarning.com
    NFL Picks NFL Stats NFL Picks NFL Stats



    1st Round
    Draft Picks



    TwoMinuteWarning.com Historical Performance of 1st Round Quarterbacks
    Every year there's a new crop of highly touted rookies, and fantasy owners looking to get an edge are often tempted to take a chance on an NFL newcomer. Before jumping for a rookie QB, you might want to review the history first!

    Q: Every year there's a couple of hotshot college Quarterbacks get drafted in the first round, but it seems like for every Peyton Manning there are several Ryan Leafs...for a fantasy player how good an idea is it to grab a QB drafted in the first round?

    A: We'll look at this strictly from the standpoint of how QB's drafted in the first round do in their rookie season. Obviously if you play in a "keeper" league your outlook needs to be a little bit different:

    Quarterbacks drafted in the first round from 1990-2002
    Yr
    Player
    Pick
    #
    Team
    Wins
    prior
    Year
    Net
    Wins
    w/QB
    Total
    Yds
    Total
    TD's
    INT
    Pts*
    90
    Andre Ware
    7
    DET
    7
    -1
    164
    1
    2
    13
    90
    Jeff George
    1
    IND
    8
    -1
    2152
    16
    13
    139
    91
    Dan McGwire
    16
    SEA
    9
    -2
    27
    0
    1
    -2
    91
    Todd Marinovich
    24
    OAK
    12
    -3
    243
    3
    0
    26
    92
    David Klingler
    6
    CIN
    3
    +2
    530
    3
    2
    38
    92
    Tommy Maddox
    25
    DEN
    12
    -4
    757
    5
    9
    33
    93
    Drew Bledsoe
    1
    NE
    2
    +3
    2494
    15
    15
    148
    93
    Rick Mirer
    2
    SEA
    2
    +4
    2833
    12
    17
    191
    94
    Heath Shuler
    3
    WAS
    4
    -1
    1658
    10
    12
    97
    94
    Trent Dilfer
    6
    TB
    5
    +1
    433
    1
    6
    10
    95
    Steve McNair
    3
    TEN
    2
    +5
    569
    3
    1
    41
    95
    Kerry Collins
    5
    CAR
    7
    0
    2717
    14
    19
    160
    97
    Jim Druckenmiller
    26
    SF
    12
    +1
    239
    1
    4
    3
    98
    Peyton Manning
    1
    IND
    3
    0
    3739
    26
    28
    213
    98
    Ryan Leaf
    2
    SD
    4
    +1
    1289
    2
    15
    35
    99
    Tim Couch
    1
    CLE
    2
    0
    2447
    15
    13
    176
    99
    Donovan McNabb
    2
    PHI
    3
    +2
    948
    8
    7
    90
    99
    Akili Smith
    3
    CIN
    3
    +1
    805
    2
    6
    48
    99
    Cade McNown
    12
    CHI
    4
    +2
    1465
    8
    10
    91
    99
    Daunte Culpepper
    11
    MIN
    15
    -5
    0
    0
    0
    0
    00
    Chad Pennington
    18
    NYJ
    8
    +1
    67
    1
    0
    7
    01
    Michael Vick
    1
    ATL
    4
    +3
    1074
    3
    3
    72
    02
    David Carr
    1
    HOU
    n/a
    (+4)
    2871
    12
    15
    165
    02
    Joey Harrington
    3
    DET
    2
    +1
    2298
    12
    16
    113
    02
    Patrick Ramsey
    32
    WAS
    8
    -1
    1538
    10
    8
    94
    Ave
    1st Round QB's
    8
    All
    6
    0
    1340
    8
    9
    80
    Notes: "Wins prior year" is how many wins the team had the season before, "Net Wins" represents the difference between the win total for the prior year and the QB's rookie season. PTS is based on the following formula (and includes rushing data): (passing yds/20)+(pass TD*4)-(INT*3)+(rushing yds/10)+(rushing TD*6)


    ANALYSIS: So overall clearly it's pretty suspect to get excited about a Quarterback picked in the first round for his rookie season -- many of them hardly see action (12/25 threw for less than 1,000 yards), and those that do aren't necessarily good performers (who can forget Ryan Leaf's infamous 2 TD and 15 INT brilliance?). Yet some of the "big hype" guys do all right in their first season, with Peyton Manning certainly putting up numbers that most fantasy players would be pretty happy with.

    We'll judge player performance according to the following standards:

    SOLID = 100+ Points -- 8/25 or 32%
    STAR = 150+ Points -- 5/25 or 20%
    STUD = 200+ Points -- 1/25 or 4%

    For more insight let's break it out by looking at where a QB was picked, and how good a team he was drafted by:

    Category
    Wins
    prior
    Year
    Net
    Wins
    w/QB
    Yds
    TD
    INT
    Pts*
    Picks 1-3
    3
    +1
    1936
    10
    13
    117
    Picks 4-10
    6
    +1
    961
    5
    7
    55
    Picks 11-20
    9
    -1
    390
    2
    3
    24
    Picks 21+
    11
    -2
    694
    5
    5
    44
    Team had <4 wins
    3
    +2
    1954
    11
    12
    122
    Team had 4-6 wins
    4
    +1
    1183
    4
    9
    60
    Team had 7-9 wins
    8
    -1
    1110
    7
    7
    68
    Team had 10+ wins
    13
    -3
    310
    2
    3
    16

    ANALYSIS: There's a pretty direct correlation between where how early a QB was drafted in the first round and how much playing time he sees. Likewise the worse a team was in the prior year (and consequently the higher the draft pick they are likely to have), the better the chances that a rookie QB will perform "respectably" for a fantasy player. Even so though, unless you're happy with 1,936 yards and 10 TD's don't get focused on grabbing a top college Quarterback taken in the top three picks.

    The six QB's drafted #1 overall averaged a healthy 2,463 yards, 15 TD's and 152 fantasy points, which might make a Carson Palmer interesting if he does indeed go number one in the 2003 draft. Our advice though is to wait on going after the rookie QB's. Even in keeper leagues, there's a pretty high risk, since arguably only 9 of the 25 QB's taken in the last twelve years would have been players you would even consider wanting on your fantasy roster. In single season leagues think of it this way: only one out of twenty-five 1st round QB picks has had a rookie season to get excited about!


    Rate this Article
    Check the box that reflects your opinion
    Poor   Fair   Good   Excellent

    Comments

    About Us | Contact Us | Subscribe | Partners | Newsletters |

    Copyright 2003 by TwoMinuteWarning.com, All Right Reserved
    feedback@twominutewarning.com
    P.O. Box 43, Aptos, California, 95001