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The Punishment Effect
TMW 2001
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    The Silver & Black Punishment Effect

    Copyright 1997, SportsMaster Stan

    There is one SportsMaster for Football angle that is flat out fabulous, and that is the suitably named "Silver & Black Punishment Effect". The angle states that a team that's playing at home this week after a game with the Raiders will underperform, and the visitor in such a matchup will cover against the spread at a groovy 66% rate. The effectiveness of this angle is easy to understand -- the Raiders more than any other team in football have cultivated an attitude and approach to the game which can only be decribed as "bruising". They have been the most physical, agressive, and yes dirty team in the National Football League throughout their history, and consequently after playing the "Oak-Town boys" even if you win you'll be hurting. If you're playing at home in the following game, you'll be looking at it as a recovery week. Now there is no doubt that the Raiders have been less successful in winning football games recently than they were in their storied past ("The Madden Days"), but they still like to go "Boom!" and are still the most penalized team in the league (while the average NFL team commits 6.7 penalties per game, the Raiders usually pass that by halftime on their way to 9.5). Last year there was a survey among the NFL players as to who is the dirtiest player in the league, and after pondering "which Raider gave me the worst cheap shot the last time we played them?", a near unanimous verdict was returned that offensive lineman Steve Wisniewski of the notorious Silver and Black was the "least clean".

    The Raiders may not be the best team in the league, but believe me when I tell you that not a whole of teams look forward to playing them. This angle has been remarkably consistent over the years, and moreover, from 1985 to 1994 when the home team was giving seven plus points after an "Oaktown Bashing", these DOA home units have managed a paltry 2-17 mark against the spread. That held up nicely last season with one of Stan's big upset calls when the Giants shocked the Dolphins in Miami as nine point underdogs the week after the "Fish" had been pushed around by Oakland.

    For an updated look at the "Punishment Effect" here are the stats from the 1999 season

    STAT of the DAY
    Q: I've always believed that some teams are much more physical than others, with the most aggressive inflicting serious pain on their opponents. This would tend to suggest that if you looked at the won-lost record of a team's opponents in the week after playing them, it would tell you which teams are indeed the "bruisers" in that the physical teams leave their opponents so banged up that the next week they are ineffective and more likely to lose. Can you tell me what the W-L records were of teams' opponents in the week following a game for the 1999 season?

    A: This harkens back to our famous "Silver and Black Punishment Effect" article which owed its name to an incredible streak put together by those original kings of the "black and blue" treatment, the Oakland Raiders. Back in their heyday the Raiders were certainly a little nasty to play against (if not downright dirty) and teams did in fact fare very poorly in the game after playing the Oaktown boys, particularly when the next game was at home. Here are the teams ranked in order of "most punishing" in 1999 if you buy this line of reasoning...


    Results of Opponents in the week following a game
    Team
    Won
    Lost
    Average
    Points
    For
    Average
    Points
    Against
    Tampa Bay
    3
    12
    21.2
    28.9
    Chicago
    3
    11
    20.8
    23.1
    St.Louis
    4
    11
    15.9
    23.1
    San Diego
    4
    10
    21.1
    27.1
    Cleveland
    5
    9
    15.4
    22.8
    Carolina
    5
    9
    22.4
    25.0
    Indianapolis
    5
    9
    18.4
    23.3
    Tennessee
    5
    9
    20.4
    22.1
    Philadelphia
    5
    9
    12.9
    17.1
    Washington
    5
    8
    21.0
    23.2
    Seattle
    6
    9
    17.7
    20.3
    Jacksonville
    6
    8
    25.4
    26.6
    Kansas City
    6
    8
    19.0
    19.0
    Atlanta
    6
    7
    23.1
    19.5
    Buffalo
    8
    7
    21.6
    19.3
    Cincinnati
    8
    7
    21.0
    19.1
    Arizona
    7
    6
    19.4
    19.7
    Green Bay
    7
    6
    23.3
    22.2
    Miami
    8
    6
    16.4
    18.3
    San Francisco
    8
    6
    23.9
    22.1
    Oakland
    7
    5
    19.7
    14.8
    New England
    7
    5
    16.5
    15.1
    Pittsburgh
    9
    6
    22.1
    20.5
    Detroit
    9
    6
    19.2
    18.3
    Minnesota
    8
    5
    22.0
    18.9
    New Orleans
    9
    5
    20.5
    20.3
    Baltimore
    9
    5
    21.7
    19.4
    Denver
    10
    5
    22.9
    18.3
    Dallas
    11
    4
    27.1
    21.6
    New York Jets
    12
    3
    22.7
    17.9
    New York Giants
    12
    3
    23.4
    17.4

    So based on the above you'd say that Tampa Bay was the team that most blunted a team's prospects in the following week, and the eventual Super Bowl Champion St. Louis Rams were #3 in the league. Curiously enough both New York teams provided a springboard to an 80% success rate in the "week after"...

    However, while this may seem like the numbers you'd want to use to judge this "damage" effect, the truth of the matter is that the schedule of the opponents a team may face has more than a little to do with the above stats. If you played a team that then faced St. Louis in the following week, chances are pretty good that your opponent got stuck with a loss regardless of how you played against them. At the same time if your opponent took on the Browns the next week, they would most likely come away with a win. One way to diffuse the variances in schedules between teams is to go not by straight won/lost records, but rather by the record against the point spread of an opponent the next week, since the line on a game represents to some degree the expected performance. Taking this view of things, the order of the teams does change, although for the most part not that substantially--


    Point Spread Results of Opponents in the following week
    Team
    Won vs spread
    Lost vs spread
    Average
    Points
    For
    Average
    Points
    Against
    Won
    Lost
    TB
    3
    12
    21.2
    28.9
    3
    12
    STL
    4
    10
    15.9
    23.1
    4
    11
    MIA
    4
    9
    16.4
    18.3
    8
    6
    IND
    5
    9
    18.4
    23.3
    5
    9
    SD
    5
    9
    21.1
    27.1
    4
    10
    SF
    5
    8
    23.9
    22.1
    8
    6
    PIT
    6
    9
    22.1
    20.5
    9
    6
    SEA
    6
    8
    17.7
    20.3
    6
    9
    CHI
    6
    8
    20.8
    23.1
    3
    11
    CLE
    6
    7
    15.4
    22.8
    5
    9
    JAX
    6
    7
    25.4
    26.6
    6
    8
    NYJ
    7
    8
    22.7
    17.9
    12
    3
    ATL
    6
    6
    23.1
    19.5
    6
    7
    PHA
    6
    6
    12.9
    17.1
    5
    9
    ARZ
    6
    6
    19.4
    19.7
    7
    6
    TEN
    7
    7
    20.4
    22.1
    5
    9
    DET
    8
    7
    19.2
    18.3
    9
    6
    WAS
    7
    6
    21.0
    23.2
    5
    8
    NE
    6
    5
    16.5
    15.1
    7
    5
    CAR
    8
    6
    22.4
    25.0
    5
    9
    KC
    8
    6
    19.0
    19.0
    6
    8
    GB
    7
    5
    23.3
    22.2
    7
    6
    OAK
    7
    5
    19.7
    14.8
    7
    5
    NYG
    9
    6
    23.4
    17.4
    12
    3
    DEN
    9
    5
    22.9
    18.3
    10
    5
    CIN
    9
    5
    21.0
    19.1
    8
    7
    BUF
    9
    5
    21.6
    19.3
    8
    7
    MIN
    8
    4
    22.0
    18.9
    8
    5
    BLT
    9
    4
    21.7
    19.4
    9
    5
    NO
    9
    4
    20.5
    20.3
    9
    5
    DAL
    11
    4
    27.1
    21.6
    11
    4
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