Predicting Season Win Totals, part I

In the past when we've run this study we've used a data set going back to 1990, but in light of the fact that the NFL is not the same today as it was in the early 90's (salary cap connundrums anyone?), we've elected to tighten the sample to look only at seasons from 1996-2006. This still gives a healthy eleven year data set but sides with the present day over the past when teams were more consistent from year to year.

Now during this period there have been no teams with either a 0-16 or 16-0 record, so consequently we will look at each prior season win total between 1 and 15 (ties are counted as a half, but rounded down for this research).

The data below includes an average change in wins (prior season to current season), and the percentage at which teams surpassed win milestones. We've also highlighted the highest win point at which teams in that category reached a milestone 50% of the time.

[Data includes 1996 to 2006 seasons]

Prior Season Wins	# of cases	Ave Net	4+ Wins	5+ Wins	6+ Wins	7+ Wins	8+ Wins	9+ Wins	10+ Wins	11+ Wins	12+ Wins
1	3	+6.0	100 %	100 %	66 %	66 %	33 %	33 %	0 %	0 %	0 %
2	5	+2.8	60 %	40 %	40 %	20 %	20 %	0 %	0 %	0 %	0 %
3	13	+3.6	84 %	76 %	61 %	53 %	30 %	23 %	23 %	7 %	7 %
4	27	+3.0	96 %	88 %	77 %	51 %	37 %	22 %	11 %	7 %	7 %
5	29	+2.0	96 %	72 %	62 %	48 %	41 %	31 %	24 %	20 %	3 %
6	37	+2.1	89 %	86 %	72 %	64 %	64 %	56 %	40 %	16 %	8 %
7	36	+0.2	86 %	75 %	63 %	50 %	50 %	41 %	30 %	19 %	11 %
8	39	-0.2	92 %	87 %	82 %	74 %	56 %	38 %	17 %	17 %	12 %
9	41	-0.4	92 %	92 %	82 %	68 %	60 %	46 %	39 %	29 %	24 %
10	39	-1.8	100 %	89 %	84 %	69 %	61 %	48 %	30 %	17 %	10 %
11	26	-1.8	100 %	92 %	88 %	88 %	80 %	53 %	46 %	34 %	23 %
12	21	-2.3	100 %	95 %	90 %	90 %	76 %	61 %	57 %	33 %	33 %
13	16	-3.7	100 %	93 %	93 %	87 %	68 %	68 %	50 %	31 %	25 %
14	7	-5.3	100 %	100 %	85 %	71 %	42 %	42 %	42 %	28 %	28 %
15	2	-4.5	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	50 %	0 %

- Records only include regular season wins
- Green highlight is highest win number for 50%+ of teams with that prior year win total

ANALYSIS: Obviously the temptation is to take these numbers a little too literally and as indicative of how "any team" in a given category will do the following season (eg assuming that any 6-10 team has a 63% chance of getting eight wins or more). This would be a bad idea in our humble opinion, since the table above is looking at things blindly, without regard for the "season wins" line set on a team -- in other words while those 6-10 teams may as a group get to 8+ wins most of the time, it's highly likely that the ones which were forecast to do poorly (eg having a season over/under line of say 5.5 wins) don't meet the percentage, whereas teams forecast to do well (say 8.5 wins) may be even higher than the class norm.

Having said that, there are some obviously strong historical results to note -- the vast majority of NFL teams get at least five wins regardless of their prior season performance, while few get to 11+ even with a superior record in the previous year.

The general message to take away from the above is that teams coming off strong seasons tend to have a hard time matching expectations and teams that had a rough year often turn it around pretty quickly. Another way to put that in a more quantitative form is:

Teams coming off 1-6 win seasons on average win 2.6 more games
Teams coming off 7-9 win seasons on average lose 0.1 more games
Teams coming off 10+ win seasons on average lose 2.4 more games

Ah, but let's take the next step anyway, with the caveat that this is just one aspect of a good season win analysis...

Review of NFL Teams by record class

14-2 record in 2006

San Diego (11 wins, over-115)

There's only been seven 14-2 teams in the past eleven years, and only two made it to eleven wins the following season. Tiny sample of course, but a sign of how hard it is to repeat a standout regular season.

13-3 records in 2006

Baltimore (9.5 wins, over-140), Chicago (10.5 wins, over+100)

Well 50% of prior year thirteen win teams have made it to ten wins as a follow-up, but only 31% have made it to eleven wins, so the Bears are a tad dicey from this one factor.

12-4 records in 2006

Indianapolis (11 wins, over-105), New England (11.5 wins, over-130)

Only 33% of 12-4 teams bounced back to win twelve games the following season. Could these two powerhouse teams of the AFC go under-under though?

10-6 records in 2006

New Orleans (9 wins, over-125), N.Y. Jets (8 wins, over+115), Philadelphia (9.5 wins, over-120)

It's been about fifty-fifty for ten win prior year teams getting to at least nine and a winning record again. Howeveronly 30% of such teams have made it to ten or more.

9-7 records in 2006

Dallas (9 wins, over-135), Denver (9.5 wins, over-120), Kansas City (8 wins, over+115), Seattle (9 wins, over+100)

Nine win teams have come back with a .500 or better season over 60% of the time, which might make you a little curious about the Chiefs at +115 to go over.

8-8 records in 2006

Carolina (9 wins, over-105), Cincinnati (9.5 wins, over-125), Green Bay (7.5 wins, over+110), Jacksonville (9 wins, over-115), N.Y. Giants (8.5 wins, over-115), Pittsburgh (9 wins, over+100), St. Louis (7.5 wins, over-120), Tennessee (7 wins, over-115)

A quarter of the league last year wound up at 8-8 and the history would suggest that one or maybe two clubs can crack the double digit win mark in 2007.

7-9 records in 2006

Atlanta (7.5 wins, over-125), Buffalo (6.5 wins, over-115), San Francisco (7.5 wins, over-165)

There have been no seven win teams that have come back with seven again in our sample, but half made it to eight or more as a follow up.

6-10 records in 2006

Houston (6.5 wins, over-105), Miami (7 wins, over-125), Minnesota (7 wins, over-115)

6-10 teams have often made good turnarounds with 56% reaching 9-7 or better. So 'over' might be the best initial thought here.

5-11 records in 2006

Arizona (7.5 wins, over-120), Washington (7.5 wins, over-105)

The fans in the desert have been waiting a long time for the Cardinals to turn the corner. Overall 41% of prior year five win teams have made it to .500 or better.

4-12 records in 2006

Cleveland (6 wins, over-120), Tampa Bay (7 wins, over-125)

Both these teams land lines suggesting they will improve by two more more wins, and while that's not uncommon with 4-12 teams, you should have good reasons to "believe"...

3-13 records in 2006

Detroit (6.5 wins, over-120)

There is hope in Detroit if you believe the historical patterns as 53% of 3-13 clubs have come back with a respectable 7 wins or more.

2-14 records in 2006

Oakland (5 wins, over-135)

The Raiders obviously want to forget last year and with a new coach and new quarterback, the forgetting should at least be relatively easy. Of the five 2-14 teams in the sample though, none made it to eight wins the next year.

Again, all of this was just an exercise and should not be construed as a full scale analysis of how to play the season win numbers, for that you'll need to delve deeper...and we will! More articles coming soon on this subject.

Also see:
Team by Team 9-Year Trends
NFL Futures Betting Odds